Market Overview at the Second Half of 2016 and the Results of Expectation Surveys

 Aksoy Research and The Economists Platform did a research to find out the market overview and the expectations in Turkey after the 15^th of July coup attempt. White collar managers of the small, middle and large scale companies, except the micro level institutions, are included in the surveys.

The participants were asked to share their observations about markets, not only from their companies’ side, but also from their suppliers’, customers’ and their shareholders’ side. “A careful optimism” is observed when the survey results were evaluated in general.

When participants were asked “Do you think last week’s coup attempt will cause a delay in companies’ investments in Turkey at the second half of 2016?”, 59,7% of them stated that the investments will be delayed and 40,3% said the investments will not be affected and they will keep investing.

After this question, when we asked the ones who said ‘Yes investments will be affected.’, “Do you think the companies that you said will delay their investments will shrink at the second half of 2016?”, 31,7% said “Yes, the will” and 68,3% said “No, they will neither make new investments nor shrink. They will protect their current situation.” At this point, only 18,3% of the participants said “They will shrink.” However 40,3% said “No, investments will not be affected, new investments will be made.” In this context, positive expectations are more than negative ones. When the factors that create the current, careful optimism are examined, economists’ preference of not closing down the share markets and not choosing the precautions that may increase the panic among people, on the contrary showing trust by keeping them open, Central Bank’s statements afterwards, Turkish Armed Forces’ high ranking officials’ towards the coup, opposition parties’ anti-coup resistance have an impact on this situation.

Other than the data given above, when we asked to confirm the market overview “Do you worry about losing your job in this conjuncture?”, we observed 33,8% has this kind of worry and 66,2% does not have such a worry. If the current political, economic and social situations are protected, signals of a more optimistic overview and expectations may take place in the short and middle run.

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