SÖZCÜ: A coalition is predicted according to June 7th election surveys
10 April 2016 1835 Views

SÖZCÜ: A coalition is predicted according to June 7th election surveys

Survey companies started to publish their final election surveys before the election bans that start tomorrow. The predicted result according to the election surveys is a coalition. Although, there is a slight difference between the election surveys that are carried out by different companies, the overall result is the same. The election surveys and their results before the election bans are as follows..

Andy-Ar’s srvey is one of the last published surveys. Andy-Ar published its latest election survey. According to Andy-Ar’s election survey, JDP’s(AKP) votes decreases below 43% and PDP(HDP) passes the threshold. Let’s take a look at the percentages of NMP (MHP) and RPP (CHP) in this election survey.

According to the electşon survey that was carried out in the last week of May, JDP’s votes are below 43%. Andy-Ar’s survey was made between May 21-24 in 49 cities and with 4166 participants. According to the election surveys, turkey may wake up to June 8th with a new coalition.

Vote Shares by Andy-Ar’s Election Survey

After hesitant votes are distributed, parties’ vote shares are predicted as;

 

JDP- 41,9%

RPP- 25,8%

NMP- 16,%

PDP- 10,7%

FP-National Alliance- 3,2%

 

There is a 3,3% decline in JDP’s votes between the Andy-Ar’s first elections survey and its final elections survey. While JDP’s vote share in the first survey is 45,2%, in the final survey it is 41,9%. The necessary amount of vote share that JDP needs in order to be the single ruling party is 45%. The highest amount in the surveys is 43%. This situation strengthens the possibility of a coalition.

Another election survey was published by Aksoy Research. In Aksoy Research’s election survey, roof interviewing method was used, and quotas such as voted party in 2011 elections, city and gender were applied.

The survey was carried out in 81 cities in order to represent the Turkey in general. The survey had 4000 participants, 95% confidence interval and 2% of standard deviation.

According to Aksoy Research’s survey, the election predictions after the hesitant votes are distributed are as follows;

JDP- 42,6%

RPP- 26,2%

NMP- 16,2%

PDP- 10,6%

FP-BUP- 2,4%

Others- 1,8%

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